Brief break from the cold followed by one more wintry plunge Thursday

Temperatures are going to start to rebound quite a bit this week. It will be noticeable beginning tomorrow, where the average temperature in Michigan will be quite a bit higher than it was today and especially yesterday. I expect highs to creep into the upper 20s for most of lower Michigan, though northern lower and the U.P. might be stuck in the lower 20s (better than sub-zero). Lows should actually be modest as well - around 15-20°F in most areas. A weak disturbance to our south is what's driving this, so we may have some light lake effect/storm driven snow as a result.

Then comes Thursday, which may be our last truly arctic cold day of February, if not the year.

The models disagree a bit on just how cold it's going to get. The NAM is by far the warmest of the bunch. It's suggesting temperatures will only hit the lower teens, or possibly enter single digit territory. The ECMWF and GFS suggest it'll be a bit colder, though.

The ECMWF puts down sub-zero temperatures for most of northern lower Michigan and the U.P., and temps around 0-5°F for the southern Lake Michigan shoreline and northern Thumb Area. The GFS, however, is very pessimistic.

Normally I'd consider this one the outlier considering what the other models are saying, but it's been pretty consistent for the last week or so on these temperatures. I'd give it about a 50:50 chance that this scenario plays out.

Regardless, temperatures will skyrocket once again not 24 hours later on Friday. This will be as a storm builds in from the south. Precipitation type looks to be snow or possibly sleet at first, quickly changing over to rain as the storm moves in. Temperatures could reach as high as 40 degrees late Friday, according to the GFS.