Three days ago the models were looking as though we'd have a repeat of last week on our hands this week. Then the storm that was being predicted abruptly disappeared from the GFS completely, but continued to be predicted by the European model. Then two days ago, it disappeared from the European model, too. I figured I'd give the models a bit to make up their minds, because they had been all over the place - some runs had a "wave" moving up the east coast while others had us still getting some snow.
As of right now, the GFS is predicting that the storm will manifest in our area, albeit it would be much weaker than what was being predicted last week, with a swath of 4-6 inches of snow affecting SE Michigan. The Euro remains a bit scatterbrained, with two successive runs predicting two different scenarios, but the mid-range models are now starting to come into focus and that's helping to make the GFS's prediction look a little more realistic. Indeed, the National Weather Service out of Detroit had this to say this morning:
Will not be running with any headline decisions right now since the
onset with the fgen band is a late period two and the southern activity does not get going until
late period 3. This is shaping up to be at least an advisory event with a longer duration and up to
a possible 5 inches of total snow accumulation. Snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible for
areas north of Detroit and 2 to 4 inches for areas south.
To summarize:
• Accumulating snow on the order of 4-6 inches looks to be targeting SE Michigan this week
• The blizzard-like storm system that was showing up in the models last week is now highly unlikely to occur - we're looking at a much weaker system without very strong winds
• Different models continue to predict different things - nothing is certain yet and the forecast should be much better after today
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