High end Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Thumb, Winter Storm Watch for northern portions of snowbelt

A high end Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for most of the thumb region, with the northern portions - Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac Counties - expected to see as much as 7 inches of snow over the next 36 hours. Text as follows:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
324 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016


MIZ049-054-055-062-063-091030-
/O.EXT.KDTX.WW.Y.0003.160209T0200Z-160210T0200Z/
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...CARO...SANDUSKY...LAPEER...
PORT HURON
324 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 9 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 PM EST TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL SLOWLY
   MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
   NIGHTTIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.

 * THE SNOW WILL PERSIST OFF AND ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

 * TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
   EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST
   AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS HURON...TUSCOLA AND SANILAC COUNTIES.

IMPACTS...

 * UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW-COVERED AND SLIPPERY

 * VISIBILITIES MAY BE SEVERLY REDUCED AT TIMES IN SOME OF THE
   HEAVIES SNOW.

DTX's forecasters have this to say concerning the technical details:

...there will be no areal extension of the advisory at the moment. The potential for lake enhancement within the mid level deformation will however support extending the advisory end time a little later into tues evening. The main forecast uncertainties at the moment revolve around how far west into Flint and the Tri Cities regions the stronger deformation will occur on Tuesday and how well the large scale forcing holds together late in the
day south of the M-59 corridor. Given fairly respectable moisture quality with 850mb mixing ratios
between 2 and 3 g/kg and given a fairly deep layer of low static stability with the mid level cold
pool in the vicinity, there is likely to be some regions of enhanced forcing which may support
periods of high intensity snowfall rates. These factors suggest some near term forecast updates will
be needed as this event unfolds. Taking into consideration liquid to snow ratios around 10:1 tonight
rising to roughly 12:1 by late Tuesday and with total QPF /tonight through tues night/ possibly over
a half inch in the Thumb to a tenth or less south of M-59, total fcst snowfall of 3 to 7 inches look
reasonable in the advisory area /dropping to an inch or less south of the M-59 corridor/.

Other areas under an advisory include most of the snowbelt counties - the northern end of which is actually under a Winter Storm Watch - and the eastern portion of the U.P.

Definitely a stronger clipper than most. Expect temperatures to absolutely plummet in the wake of this storm.