Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Storm not quite as powerful in latest model runs, still going to drop up to a foot in some areas

The upcoming storm has lost some, if not much, of the ferocity that was making me marvel at it. It's now forecast to drop to around 980mb at full maturity, which is still quite impressive, but not on the order of the intensity of yesterday and the day before. This is good, because the lower a storm's pressure, the stronger the winds. Some areas may definitely still see blizzard conditions, but those areas shouldn't be as widespread as they would've been had this thing come packing the pressure of a wintry hurricane. When storms drop below 980, that's when you really gotta watch out. That's when history starts to remember a storm.


With that in mind, the NWS has actually revised snowfall totals for some areas upwards from previous totals. This doesn't surprise me in the slightest, as models have consistently forecast an average of 8 inches to a foot of snow across most of the area. The totals have been revised a bit downwards the further west you go, and I think this has to do with the storm losing some of its power.

There's still the question of what the lake is going to do to this thing. These snowfall totals being predicted for the Thumb may account for the lake somewhat, but it's a big wildcard in terms of what could happen. If there's any mid-level instability whatsoever, which there will be, very intense bands could develop embedded in the surrounding storm, which could send snowfall rates into the stratosphere.

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