100% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon - Severe wind possible

I'm posting my first true disagreeing outlook today. The SPC only expects a marginal chance of severe weather, but with what I'm seeing in the models, surface observations, and feeling in my gut when I go outside, I'm thinking we're dealing with a slightly greater threat for damaging winds this afternoon.

Hi-res NAM4KM guidance is showing explosive thunderstorm development this afternoon in SE Michigan. The HRRR guidance is also starting to indicate some strong cells forming between 2 and 5PM. I anticipate a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued by 3PM EDT and it should cover most of the counties I've shaded in yellow. The biggest threat will be damaging winds from wet microbursts. I think this is a real possibility this afternoon as these storms should explode in a very moisture rich environment. Storm mode is beginning to look more linear in nature, which leads me to believe we could wind up with some bowing structures with some real energy behind them.

We should know a lot more within the next one to two hours. My gut tells me today will be active.