Not much severe so far today - Real story Wednesday

A few elevated storms have popped up this morning as instability above the strong cap (which manifested as forecast) has allowed for this development. Most of it is moving through and/or fizzling out rather epically - I just watched a storm go from looking like it could drop quarter sized hail to next to nothing as it crossed the Saginaw Bay. Very little hope for widespread rain out of this one.

The good and/or bad news is Wednesday. We'll start with the good. Widespread rain is anticipated as a closed low is expected to form to our west and tracks over Michigan. Our state desperately needs this rain at this point. The bad news may be what comes with it, especially for the southern third of the state - a true significant severe weather threat.

You may remember mentioning weeks ago at the models hinting at something big for late June. While the models have not exactly been trustworthy, the signals they're all giving off at this point indicate a strong potential of a derecho forming - or at least a highly severe MCS that dances on the edge of being a derecho. Some of the conditions expected are truly off the scale. We're talking 70kt+ low level windspeed, dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, 0-1KM EHIs of 7+ - the works. If storm mode was expected to be discrete, it'd be a potential tornado outbreak. As it stands, wherever the storms fire are likely to see some major tornado potential, though the storms should merge quickly into a line and plow east at 70+ mph.

For now, this threat is only for the extreme southern portion of the state as far as Michigan is concerned. However, there are some slight indications that the track of this thing could be further north, leading to a much more widespread threat. This system won't be anything to joke around with, wherever it lands. An enhanced risk with a hatched area has already been posted by the SPC for their day 3 outlook. This could go to moderate or high depending on its evolution. More as it develops.