The coming weeks should be much more active.
Several runs of the GFS are predicting elevated severe weather potential in the state on Thursday, June 9th and Friday June 10th. The latest run of the ECMWF is beginning to hint at it, too.
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| Thursday June 9th |
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| Friday June 10th |
On both days, conditions are forecast to be moderate to strongly unstable (1500-2500j/kg SBCAPE) as a warm front moves into the area, bringing dewpoints in the upper 60s. Surface winds may be a bit stronger this time around, especially on Friday - between 15-25kts. Low-level winds could reach 50kts, and mid-level winds could be around 60-70kts. Storms would be coming from the north on this one, which would be similar to the August 2nd setup last year. It's not looking quite as intense as that scenario just yet, though. In terms of intensity, as of now this is looking like it could be about a 4 out of 10. August 2nd was more like a 7 out of 10.
On Thursday, for now, I'm predicting that severe thunderstorms will be likely along and north of the US-10 corridor where it appears storms are most likely to occur. This is where the most frontal interaction should take place, at least according to this forecast. To the south, there will be less of a risk, despite just as much if not more instability, as there'll be less forcing for ascent to start the engines. For Friday, I'm only predicting isolated severe storms for now, as the GFS is not suggesting that many storms will form on Friday due to lack of forcing despite a strong conditional threat.
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