Next weekend picture starting to become more muddy

The GFS has backed off a bit on how much instability its forecasting for next weekend, but the ECMWF has stepped up to replace it, predicting between 2500-3000j/kg of CAPE even in the morning hours.

I'm going to leave the outlook how it is for now, but if things don't start clearing up a bit with the next day's model runs, I may just put up a big question mark again. So far everything this year has been a bust for this area, and I'm beginning to wonder just how reliable the long range models are going to be even when in agreement. We may be looking at a severe weather season that either vastly underwhelms, or blooms a bit later in the year. Everything seems to be going around us - either to the south and then up the east coast (as it's happening today and tomorrow) - or fizzling out prior to making it out of the plains. Thankfully some rain appears to be arriving today.