Wednesday Severe - Enhanced risk cancelled - Slight risk expanded

UPDATE: Editing this post rather than making a new one. The enhanced risk for severe weather has been cancelled. It has been replaced by a slight risk covering the same area and extending further northward into most of Mid Michigan. This is due to lower confidence in severe weather due to lower amounts of shear being forecast and satellite water vapor imagery indicating that air in the storm is drying out as it returns to the surface. However, with the expansion of the slight risk comes potentially wider coverage. With uncertainty on the rise we're likely not going to have a better idea of what to expect until tomorrow, when the short range models and surface observations begin to paint a clearer picture. 

The SPC has put out an enhanced risk of severe weather across southern lower Michigan in response to latest model guidance depicting a more organized system making its way toward the state on Wednesday. Two rounds of severe weather are being predicted - one in the afternoon and one in the evening. This may channel memories of June 22nd last year, though the potential isn't looking anywhere near as nasty just yet.

Of particular importance will be what happens today. Models forecast vigorous storm development to our west, and the resulting remnants may have a huge impact on the placement of the warm front. If these remnants shunt everything south as what most of the models are predicting (the exception being the NAM), then the severe threat will remain isolated further north. However, that warm front could easily encompass the entire area, especially as that storm system ramps up a bit. It has continuously grown stronger in every subsequent run, which has me thinking the models could be underestimating its full potential.

As of right now, the SPC designates only a marginal risk for severe weather exists along and south of US-10 to around the I-69 corridor, followed by a slight risk (15%) from I-69 to the aforementioned boundary. A mere general thunder risk is put out for the thumb and north of US-10. My concern is raised a bit by the opinion of the NWS Detroit forecasters. They explicitly state that the severe threat should cover the entirety of the county warning area by Wednesday night, in contrast to the SPC's assertion that the threat would remain to the south. They tend to be a bit more familiar with the area than the SPC, so this would indicate a greater risk further north than what's being depicted right now. Time will tell.