Sometimes I think Mother Nature and the Big Guy Upstairs have a pretty morbid sense of humor, or at the very least a sense of irony. Tomorrow is one year to the day of the June 22nd 2015 tornado event that produced the EF2 tornado that hit Millington. Portions of southern Michigan may have something even uglier on the way as what appears as it could be one of the costliest severe weather events to hit Michigan in recent history begins to take shape.
An two-round event almost identical to last years in terms of storm mode and timing appears to be on the way, only this time it's as though nature is trying to make up for 'mistakes' last year in terms of potential. Last year's event had parameters off the charts in the weeks and days ahead of the event, where as this one only danced on the horizon in an obscure, teasing fashion a few weeks back, hid from view for awhile and then sprang to life in the days before. Note that this event is still coming into focus, and for confidence to be this high in widespread, significant severe even at this point leads me to believe more adjusting of the bullseye may take place in the coming hours. Before this is said and done we may be looking at the first high risk day in over two years - since June 3rd 2014 to be specific.
Round one will consist of the remainder of thunderstorms from the previous day along a warm front being generated by a closed surface low which should develop over Wisconsin and Minnesota. These storm are expected to be severe thanks to intense low level wind speeds, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary hazard. A wide area of extremely unstable air is expected to develop throughout the Great Lakes region in the wake of these storms along the moderate risk zone. Widespread mid 60s to upper 70s dewpoints coupled by temperatures in the 80 degree range should produce MUCAPE values of 2000-3000j/kg. As has been the case for the last few times, a capping inversion is also expected to develop after round one, however rather than helping prevent storms this time around, it's going to serve as a ram-rod for the cannon. You've heard me talk about "loaded gun" profiles before, and this is exactly the type of scenario we're looking at. Thanks to intense destabilization, very strong low-level wind speeds and a weaker-than-usual cap, the cap should break and explosive thunderstorm development is likely to occur. This includes supercells with very significant tornado potential, large hail and very widespread damaging winds. Wherever the cells form will have the highest significant tornado threat. After the initial development these storms should merge into a line, and at this point "derecho" is the only thing that comes to mind. This system will have power and that I cannot understate; hurricane force winds being produced along the squall line is not out of the question and could even be likely as this monster plows east.
I urge anyone along and south of I-69 to go over severe weather contingency plans with their families and friends. Take this one seriously. All of the busts that have happened this year are likely to be made up for in one fell swoop. There's always a chance that it doesn't pan out as forecast, but this ugly situation is more likely to occur than not at this point. As stated before, the bullseye could still shift some, and (God forbid) the ugliness could go further north. I'll continue to watch this and post updates as they come.
To summarize:
• A widespread, significant severe weather event is expected to occur tomorrow, June 22nd 2016
• Current target area is along and south of I-69 where an enhanced risk for severe weather exists east of I-75, and a moderate risk west of I-75; the moderate risk also extends east, south of M-59
• Two rounds of severe weather are expected, similar to last year's June 22nd event, with damaging winds/hail in the morning, followed by a significant tornado and hurricane force wind threat in the evening and into the overnight
• The exact bullseye for this one is not yet set in stone, though the SPC is confident enough to issue a moderate risk - as confidence increases, the first high risk day in over two years could be on the way
1 comment:
I appreciate the reads Phil. I'm hesitant to even chase this setup this evening because of the anticipated speed of the line and expected damaging winds.
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