Timing aside, the conditions look like they could be strengthening a bit. Each subsequent run of the GFS is predicting a bit more severe potential. The ECMWF is just getting to the point where it can see that far ahead, and so far it's not quite in agreement, but it isn't too far off, either. It's suggesting some pockets of ridiculously moist air in and around the region in the days leading up to the weekend, too:
The biggest reason for my concern is the consistency between GFS runs that has continued to indicate 1) very unstable conditions in/around the Great Lakes, 2) strong low level, mid level and upper level winds, 3) at least some convection developing over the area.
And then there's the appearance of the pattern itself:
This pattern may look familiar to those who remember August 2nd last year:
It's too early to tell in terms of potential intensity, but this forecast sounding is definitely eye-opening:
No comments:
Post a Comment