Dare I say it? Severe storms possible Monday

We're 0 for 3. Last Wednesday's weather evolved almost identically to the weekend before - with a capping inversion killing the chances for thunderstorms across Michigan despite a favorable outlook in the days before. Muskegon and other portions of western lower Michigan actually saw some pretty impressive storms and some wind damage to go with it, but these were storms which had formed over Wisconsin and moved a bit quicker across the lake than originally anticipated, maintaining their strength.

Some pretty impressive wind profiles will combine with a very unstable atmosphere on Monday.

Once again, conditions will be favorable for severe weather, especially further to the north where the upper level winds are stronger.

Now we have a similar situation developing for Monday. The models (a word which I'm considering wrapping in quotes at this point) are suggesting that most previous day convection should fizzle out as a rather strong wind field filters into our area ahead of some truly impressive temperatures/dewpoints. We could very well hit 95°F in SE Michigan on Monday, which is amazing for mid June and demonstrates just how intense of a summer we're looking at. Some very unstable air will be overhead once again, and the wind fields look a little more impressive this time around - 40-50kts of (mostly unidirectional) bulk shear from I-69 south, and 50-60kts to the north. Combined with a cold front entering from the north, this sounds like a great mixture for severe weather. However, a lid could once again be kept on things.

A very strong capping inversion is forecast to develop in the morning, but weaken considerably throughout the day.

Subsidence drying (the drying out of air as it lowers toward the earth from higher in the atmosphere after undergoing convection and cooling to a stable level) has been happening a lot in the storm systems that have affected us. This convective overturn from previous day storms creates a layer of warm dry air at the low levels of the atmosphere, which can keep a lid on thunderstorm development. Another significantly strong cap is forecast to develop by the models early in the day. This cap should erode somewhat by late-afternoon, when the front is forecast to move through. However, it may not erode enough to allow thunderstorms to go up. As such, the SPC has only issued a marginal risk of severe weather for Monday at this point, and its to the south of the state where they predict that the cap will weaken enough to allow any thunderstorm development.

Considerable uncertainty remains, especially after the latest model runs. If the cap is weaker than the models are demonstrating, we could wind up with "loaded gun" profiles, which could equate to explosive thunderstorm development. Hazards in such storms would be very intense damaging winds and very large hail. The unidirectional profile should minimize any tornado risk. The cap could be stronger than the models have advertised (which has happened the last few times), which would mean no storms once again.

It's a flip of the coin at this point. We're either going to have big storms, or nothing once more. More data will be necessary, and even then it will be hard to say what's going to happen right up to crunch time.