Severe potential today, Saturday appears low to me

The marginal risk that the SPC has put out for today has shrank even further to the west. I honestly doubt we're going to see any storms of note this afternoon - just general rain and thunder. The U.P. has a slightly better chance of seeing bigger storms, but that chance is still fairly low.

Curiously, the SPC has introduced a 15% risk area for severe weather in Michigan this Saturday. I'm not sure if I'm feeling it on this one either. They flat out mention that the only reason they're doing this is due to a mid-level jet of 40-50kts expected, however this has gone down in the latest model run and so I foresee this outlook being adjusted downward tomorrow unless something major changes in the forecast. Instability is predicted to be very low on Saturday and dewpoints are looking to struggle to reach even 60. We'd have to have a whopper of a wind storm to power severe weather at those levels, and what I'm seeing in the models just isn't up to snuff.