Backing off from severe probs as moisture/low level winds continue to plummet

I'm thinking the SPC was right in tempering this one. The models have backed off considerably in both terms of low level wind speed and moisture content necessary for widespread severe weather. I'm thinking we still could see an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, but that risk exists primarily to the south of the state line and SW Michigan is looking at only a slight chance of damaging winds.

So what's making this situation die down unlike the November 17th event?

Compare the two images below:

While a very similar jet core setup is developing, notice the winds over the Gulf of Mexico. On November 17th 2013, you had a southern jet actually curving up into the northern one. This helped feed the system some extra energy, and helped drive that low level jet that brought all the Gulf moisture and surface wind speed. This time around, the southern jet is driving almost due west with no northward curve to speak of. This is helping to keep this system starved of moisture and thus nowhere near the threat that the region saw in 2013.