Latest short range models indicate some severe storm potential further north

Update: New categorical outlook just released which outlines an enhanced tornado risk where the latest models suggest storms initially developing. Marginal risk was extended this morning further north into central lower Michigan, as well as a slight extension of the slight risk area by a few counties.

Conditionally, the situation still looks strong, although the freshest models have suggested that initial storms should develop as far west as Iowa and northern Missouri. Those areas should see the strongest tornado threat - despite conditions not being quite what they would be further east. The SPC has applied an enhanced risk to those areas.

I am a bit concerned that we may wind up with a sleeper severe weather event in eastern lower Michigan similar to what we had last November. There is that potential for sure. The wind fields will be very very strong and the upward forcing of air will be off the scale; despite overall lack of instability, very strong updrafts should form. It tells you something that the primary risk in southwest Michigan this afternoon is going to be severe hail, as these supercharged updrafts push what moisture there is to the upper levels of the troposphere. My hope is that the lights stay on in all areas. I will wait for 12z runs to look at forecasted 1-hour UDH in storms over the Thumb to determine what the Thumb's threat level looks like. For now, I'm almost leaning toward a marginal chance of severe wind. It's going to be one of those all-or-nothing scenarios.