This pretty much matches my current thinking of the bullseye zone, albeit it is one category down from what I've delineated. They've also backed off on the northward extent where I believe SW lower MI as far north as Ottawa County could see widespread wind damage. My thinking remains that a solid line of thunderstorms will develop over Wisconsin/Lake Michigan and push eastward into the southern half of the shoreline presenting a very widespread damaging wind threat. The winds in this system are going to be very, very strong, and any thunderstorm that forms in this environment could and should cross the severe threshold.
I'm comfortable with my outlook for now and believe that before this is over the SPC will probably upgrade theirs to at least an enhanced risk, more likely a moderate or high risk. These wind profiles are just too much.
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