Models are backing off quite a bit on severe potential, SPC downgrades categorical outlook

The general severe risk previously applied to Michigan has been downgraded to a marginal risk. This comes as early day rains drop projected instability to less than 500j/kg.

Needless to say I was never quite sold on this one affecting us, as it was messy looking from the start and looked as though most of the nastiness would stay to the south. Some gusty winds and hail may still be present in the storms that do develop, but most should stay below severe thresholds.