Tuesday, March 1, 2016

DTX revises official storm total accumulation forecast, calls for a foot

I will admit, sometimes it feels so good to be vindicated. This one has been a monster to try to see coming, so it's nice to know that I can still feel these things out pretty good.



Latest warning text:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1103 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016


MIZ047>049-053>055-020015-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160302T0400Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY
1103 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.

 * SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED AT
   TIMES...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM.

 * NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH BY
   THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR LAKE HURON.

 * STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITH
   SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH OF MIDLAND.


IMPACTS...

 * SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL BE SLICK.

 * THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE TRAVEL THIS
   EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
   CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
   LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

* A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

Keep in mind that this likely foot total will be for the counties in the "jackpot" zone - that's the area from Midland to the into the Thumb. I'd expect Flint to be included in that zone, too. The system is going to be making a very sharp pivot from east-west to north-south right from around Flint as an axis point. Looking at local radar loops, it's already pretty much happening.

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