Monday, March 21, 2016

NWS Grand Rapids favors Euro forecast - WINTER STORM WATCH issued for West Michigan

The Old Man is showing signs of winning this fight. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of most of western lower Michigan. The Grand Rapids office is predicting heavy snow for the northern portions (watch out, Mid Michigan) and a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.


Text of the watch:

From the forecast discussion page on the Grand Rapids website: 

WE ARE FAVORING THE COLDER AND SNOWIER EURO SOLUTION FOR THE
CHANGEOVER AND POSITION OF P-TYPES FROM WED AND INTO THE LONG TERM.
WE BELIEVE THAT THE EURO IS HANDLING THE UPPER LOW MUCH BETTER AS IT
EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES. THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW
ACCELERATE EAST TOO MUCH RESULTING FROM INTERACTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL 
SHORT WAVES. 

NWS Detroit has yet to pull the trigger on a watch, citing model inconsistency. I agree with them, and still think this could go either way, which is why I'm maintaining my "predictability too low" outlook for at least another model run or two. However, every weather personality in my immediate circle seems to favor the rain/snow line being along I-69, with snow to the north. That would place Mid Michigan directly in the bullseye for the heaviest snow once again, I'd say in the 8-12 inch range at this point.

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