Text of the discussion:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND LOWER MICHIGAN CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 011806Z - 020000Z SUMMARY...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER INDIANA. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON IN THE HEAVIER BANDS...WITH RATES APPROACHING 2 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MCD AREA IN THE 2100-2300 UTC PERIOD. DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER INDIANA AND REACH THE NORTHWESTERN OHIO BORDER BY 2000 UTC AS SHARP/STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATING REGION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL PV APPROACHES THE AREA. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS CONTRIBUTING TO A REGION OF STEADY MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS INITIAL AREA WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AND CONTRIBUTE TO 1 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 2000-2100 UTC BEFORE EXITING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THEREAFTER. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA BETWEEN 2200-0000 UTC WHERE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXITING LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL OVERLAP WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT SPREADING OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME. OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MCD AREA...THE STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS BEFORE DEEPER COLD ADVECTION/NEUTRAL-TO-NEGATIVE VERTICAL VELOCITIES ENTER THE AREA BY 2300-0000 UTC. THE 850-MB FREEZING LINE -- DEPICTED ON THE MCD IMAGE AT 2000 UTC -- IS EXPECTED TO ROUGHLY DELINIATE THE REGIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE ALL SNOW FROM A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET...AND THEREFORE DEFINES THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE EXPECTED HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES.
The Little Storm That Could is chugging up the mitten faster than anyone predicted. I'm taking lots of pictures and videos that I plan on sharing (along with last week's videos) after the storm is complete.
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