Tuesday, March 1, 2016

NWS Storm Prediction Center - 1-2" per hour snowfall rates

Mesoscale discussion #163 has been issued for what's shaping up to be quite the heavy snow event:



Text of the discussion:

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1206 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND LOWER MICHIGAN

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 011806Z - 020000Z

   SUMMARY...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO
   DEEPEN OVER INDIANA. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE COMMON IN THE
   HEAVIER BANDS...WITH RATES APPROACHING 2 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER
   BANDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MCD AREA IN THE
   2100-2300 UTC PERIOD.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER
   INDIANA AND REACH THE NORTHWESTERN OHIO BORDER BY 2000 UTC AS
   SHARP/STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATING REGION
   OF MID-UPPER LEVEL PV APPROACHES THE AREA. IN THE NEAR TERM...STRONG
   ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS CONTRIBUTING TO A REGION OF STEADY MODERATE
   SNOWFALL ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS INITIAL AREA WILL MOVE QUICKLY
   EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AND CONTRIBUTE TO 1 IN/HR
   SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 2000-2100 UTC BEFORE EXITING INTO SOUTHERN
   ONTARIO THEREAFTER. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE HEAVIEST
   ACTIVITY...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED
   OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA BETWEEN
   2200-0000 UTC WHERE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXITING LOW-LEVEL
   FRONTOGENESIS WILL OVERLAP WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT
   SPREADING OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME. OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
   THE MCD AREA...THE STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
   PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS BEFORE
   DEEPER COLD ADVECTION/NEUTRAL-TO-NEGATIVE VERTICAL VELOCITIES ENTER
   THE AREA BY 2300-0000 UTC. THE 850-MB FREEZING LINE -- DEPICTED ON
   THE MCD IMAGE AT 2000 UTC -- IS EXPECTED TO ROUGHLY DELINIATE THE
   REGIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE ALL SNOW FROM A MIXTURE OF
   SNOW/SLEET...AND THEREFORE DEFINES THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE
   EXPECTED HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES.

The Little Storm That Could is chugging up the mitten faster than anyone predicted. I'm taking lots of pictures and videos that I plan on sharing (along with last week's videos) after the storm is complete.

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