Rain forecast revised down quite a bit - Severe thunderstorm chances up

The models have been having trouble predicting stormtrack days in advance as of late. Last week, we were on the pummeling end of such an error when the Little Storm That Could™ wound up tracking north and dumping 13"+ of snow on the Thumb.

Now we're going to be on the opposite end of the error, and all the rainfall from this system is going to go to the south of us, tracking through Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York.

More details can be found here.

On the topic of next week, I'm still a bit concerned about the possibility of severe thunderstorms.

The latest models actually do have the front speeding up which would likely bring us some strong storms, though the wind profiles are a bit more unidirectional and a bit less intense, and the system itself is more positively tilted, which means the tornado threat would be a bit muted, though the damaging wind threat appears higher than it did last night. This forecast could easily change again, but based on what I see this afternoon I'll likely introduce a dark green or yellow outlook for next Wednesday.