Severe weather threat looks to shift a bit westward, more in line with 11/17/13

The bullseye area has retreated a bit westward, but the scenario is still looking quite strong.

Mainly, the question is how much moisture is going to be present over the lower Great Lakes as this monstrous storm system develops. The more moisture, the better chance of severe weather. As of now, this scenario looks on par with November 17th in terms of upper level winds, a bit below that day in terms of lower level winds, and the-same-to-much less in terms of moisture content, depending on where you are.

The stronger low level winds caused a widespread area of very warm moist air across the region back in 2013. As the low level jet isn't looking quite as strong, the highest moisture content is confined to a much smaller area. Those that do have the moisture should have a lot of it, though - both the GFS and NAM are predicting dewpoints at or above 60° for areas of Illinois and Indiana. The question is, how high will the dewpoints be in Southwest Lower Michigan? That depends on the model you look at, and the time of day.

The NAM tends to 'overdo' moisture content in its forecast, but with 60° dewpoints just to the south I don't think it's far-fetched to think that a wide area of SW lower MI will achieve dewpoints of 55° or higher. With this kind of system, that should be more than enough for a solid line of severe storms to develop and produce a very strong damaging wind threat. The tornado threat will also be present, but my thinking is that storm mode should be more linear (possible LEWP segments), so strong tornadoes wouldn't be especially likely, but can't be ruled out.

As goes the saying, the situation looks strong, but a bit disjointed. The strongest forcing will be along the Lake Michigan shoreline and will build into our area. The best conditions for severe weather, however, will be to the south of our state line. If there's enough forcing in those areas for discrete storms, they're looking at a possible whopper of a tornado outbreak. The further east you go in our state, the less the threat should be present, as I have a feeling cool air coming off of Lake Huron will choke covection it moves east.