Could be a bad year for gardening/fruit - March 16-18th potentially strong cold front

This could be one of those springs that bounces back and forth between April/May-like temperatures and what we traditionally see in March, which is highs in the upper 30s and nights well below freezing. The latest GFS in particular is suggesting that a storm system would develop and thrust northward into Manitoba/Ontario (similar to our spring/summer-style patterns), bringing very warm temperatures - we're talking potentially low-to-mid 70s - and dewpoints in the upper 50s. This could set up some strong thunderstorms that week.

What comes after that week has me a bit alarmed for the fruit trees, though:

This indicates a potential dip back down to the 30s in the wake of what would likely be a strong cold front. This forecast puts northern Michigan clearly under the gun, and Mid-Michigan right on the threshold. This is very preliminary, and that freezing line could go 100 miles in either direction, north or south, but you get the picture. Even a single night below freezing at this point could damage new buds, which are likely to come out in the wake of these upcoming weeks of high temperatures. There are a few points between where it could freeze, too, so hopefully that'll slow things down, but in using the "wave" crest/trough visualization, this would definitely be the highest and lowest points in the timeline.

Again, this is way far out, and things could change significantly, but one thing the GFS model does well is temperatures. In another week the Euro should be able to see this point, so we'll have some more clarity on what to look for. Either way, gardeners, do not give in to temptation - don't plant until mid April at the earliest!

As a side note, today's chance of thunderstorms in lower MI has all but disappeared. I do suspect there'll be thunder in areas of the U.P., but down here we're just too stable (no disrespect, yoopers).