The latest NAM is forecasting some very moist air to build into the area on Thursday, with temperatures approaching 65° and dewpoints approaching 55°. The ECMWF actually pushes these temperatures/dewpoints further north than the NAM does, so my latest outlook is including a marginal chance as far north as the Saginaw Valley and northern Thumb. However, as you get further south, the chances for severe weather will be much better, as surface-based CAPE of 1000-1500j/kg should build in. This will be the most unstable air we've seen yet this year, and, when combined with winds which should increase in speed and direction rapidly with height and a strong cold front, should be enough to drive a line of severe thunderstorms.
If I had to guess on storm type, I'd assume a multicell line at this point, but some embedded supercells wouldn't be out of the question, especially considering some of the forecast hodographs, as shown below. Significant tornado potential is actually being forecast as slightly elevated in some areas, specifically the eastern counties along the border with Ohio.
I will be keeping a close eye on this one and adjusting the outlook accordingly as necessary.
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