Significant tornado potential definitely going up for portions of Illinois, Indiana

Just because this isn't looking to be a widespread severe weather outbreak on the order of November 17th doesn't mean that the areas in the bullseye are going to be any less prone to significant tornadoes. In fact, looking at the latest model runs, I'd say that their risk is going up in a hurry.

As of this run, areas of Illinois may see surface-based CAPE values of between 1500 and 1700j/kg. That's quite a bit more than what it was originally looking like. This leads to a much higher "sigtor" index value of 4 - which is definitely high enough to be concerned about EF3+ tornadoes. Storm mode in these areas would likely be discrete, at least initially, which puts the tornado threat much higher than it would otherwise be.

Michigan should escape the worst of this one, but combined with what happened in Tennessee and Arkansas, it's looking like severe weather is favoring the eastern portion of the Midwest this year. I'm sure the Great Plains will get their turn, but I expect an active May/June severe weather season, especially if that Bermuda High holds.