While the mid-month monstrous upper level disturbance is now looking to manifest well to our east where it will pose absolutely no threat to us, the GFS is forecasting a smaller yet reasonably strong disturbance that will likely affect Michigan next Thursday.
The low-level and mid-level wind speeds are forecast to be quite strong, and strengthening with each run.
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| The GFS is beginning to display some yellow in the supercell composite, and the GFS is good for underestimating severe weather potential. |
The setup is similar to how it was at the beginning of August, albeit not as strong looking. A strong surface low should be hovering over the Hudson Bay, sucking up moisture from the heat dome over the central US. This would cause high winds out of the south/southwest over our state at the mid levels of the atmosphere. If said levels can destabilize enough, combined with the ULD pushing a cold front through at the time, storms should ignite and they could be quite strong.
Yesterday afternoon's ECMWF suggests significantly weaker levels of CAPE in the area during that time frame, but with each successive GFS run suggesting more, I'm going to go ahead and say that isolated severe weather is probable in the Great Lakes region for this time period.
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