NAM, NAM4KM beginning to suggest bigger severe threat, though cloud cover may keep things marginal

I'm sitting on the fence about upgrading my outlook after seeing the latest NAM and especially NAM4KM model guidance:

Latest NAM run suggests above-average severe potential from the Thumb into northern Michigan by 5PM.

The NAM4KM suggests pockets of VERY strong severe potential this afternoon in portions of northern lower Michigan into the Thumb.

Both models indicate that conditions for severe weather may be a bit better than originally expected throughout central and even northern Michigan this afternoon and evening.  Nonetheless, it's very cloudy right now, and temperatures have yet to break 75°.  If they do manage to get up to 80-85° as the models are predicting, we may have a very active afternoon on our hands.

For now, I'm going to leave the outlook where it is, and wait until the 18z Gaylord and Detroit observations come in to make any adjustments.