Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Detroit/Gaylord Obs, HRRR, and NAM4KM suggesting very unstable air in place over Michigan today

I'm still siding with the SPC that the chance of severe thunderstorms today is slim to none due to wind profiles, but check out the instability profiles predicted by the HRRR as of 10AM EST:


Even more telling, check out the observations from the weather balloons launched over Detroit and Gaylord this morning:


Lapse rates from 900 to 700 mb aren't particularly steep, and there's even some indication of a slight increase in temperatures at the mixed layer from Gaylord, but still, that's some majorly unstable air for 9AM.  Very little inhibition should be in place this afternoon, too.  Storms that do form could explode, at least briefly.  A sustained severe threat with winds as weak as they are seems out of the question, though; updrafts will collapse on themselves without any horsepower to keep them moving.

Up to 4000j/kg of SBCAPE this afternoon could produce storms similar to the ones on August 14th that moved at a snail's pace yet grew very intense.  I wouldn't rule out a warning or two if the storms can tap into this level of energy.  This afternoon may make for some awesome pictures if nothing else.

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