SPC assigns marginal severe risk for most of lower MI

Update: SPC's latest outlook now includes most of lower MI and not just southern lower in the marginal risk assessment. Post edited accordingly.  

The Storm Prediction Center designates a 5% chance of both damaging wind and hail in the dark green areas.

Simulated radar for 6pm this evening per today's 2am run of the NAM4KM model.

Conditions in the Thumb will actually be best in the state for severe weather according to the last several runs of the NAM4KM, as any breeze that comes off the Saginaw Bay will likely cause northeastern moving thunderstorms to turn right and begin to rotate. This should lead to at least some damaging wind potential. Instability should be moderate to strong so there should be plenty of fuel for storms to absorb.

Already this morning, several complexes of thunderstorms are moving through the southern Thumb and I-69 corridor, which shows that there's going to be plenty of instability to work with today. Heavy rains will be another issue today, as will potential flash flooding on ground that continues to have trouble absorbing all the water being dropped on it.