Lower Michigan doesn't look to be under the gun at all for severe weather according to both the SPC and several different forecast models, however the NAM in particular is suggesting pockets of very unstable air present over the state Friday afternoon, and relatively unstable air again on Saturday. Both of the last two NAM runs have been fairly consistent in this feature.
We're definitely going to get wet on Friday, though I'm not sure to what degree we'll see new thunderstorm development, as forcing for ascent won't be particularly strong over the state. The cold front is scheduled to come through on Saturday, which is when I'd expect the bigger storms save for one complicating factor - previous day convection; both whether or not it'll warm the mixed layer and whether or not it will cloud up the surface and prevent daytime highs from getting to the point where they'd cause trouble.
 |
| Instability isn't expected to be as high over the state on Saturday, however... |
 |
| ...the upper level disturbance... |
 |
| ...and associated surface low will be in an ideal position to cause strong thunderstorms in lower Michigan, provided that prior day convection or any stratiform precipitation that forms doesn't get in the way. |
The NAM is forecasting the surface low associated with this relatively strong upper level disturbance to reach peak intensity on Saturday, though, which should definitely provide enough horsepower for any storms that do form to go severe.
I'll continue to watch the situation and make updates as new information comes along. For now, count on rain and thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday, with questionable intensity.
No comments:
Post a Comment