The National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac office has highlighted specific concerns of damaging winds in the southeast Michigan area through the overnight, although there's some indication that a cap could prevent robust thunderstorm growth:
...there will be very good warm advection/isentropic ascent farther north, leading to the
higher confidence/near 100 percent pops toward Saginaw Bay. With such dynamic system and potential
organized complex/mcs developing, damaging winds can not be totally ruled out as low level jet ramps
up to 50+ knots ( 60+ plus knots per regional GEM ) around 9z Saturday right near the surface cold
front, but that is partially an artifact of the surface inversion/stable layer developing, and thus
helping to mitigate the severe threat.
higher confidence/near 100 percent pops toward Saginaw Bay. With such dynamic system and potential
organized complex/mcs developing, damaging winds can not be totally ruled out as low level jet ramps
up to 50+ knots ( 60+ plus knots per regional GEM ) around 9z Saturday right near the surface cold
front, but that is partially an artifact of the surface inversion/stable layer developing, and thus
helping to mitigate the severe threat.
So far, I'd say the chance of severe weather remains about 50/50, though I'd lean more toward bigger storms based on what I'm seeing from the model, particularly in the western portion of the state. With a cap present, storm modes should wind up being discrete, which is what the model suggests for the Saginaw Valley into the Thumb, which could even lead to rotation in some storms, especially should they interact with a lake breeze. Also based on what I'm seeing from the models, I have a sneaking suspicion tomorrows SPC highlighted marginal risk area for the Thumb southward will be cancelled by tomorrow morning, as thunderstorms should be out of our area by noon.
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