Friday, August 14, 2015

8am Detroit/Gaylord upper air observations in - Increasingly unstable atmosphere and veering wind profile

Little concerned with what I'm seeing in regards to weather balloon observations from both the Detroit and Gaylord NWS offices.  These soundings are real observations and not just model data.



Both are showing fairly steep mixed-level lapse rates over much of Michigan, as well as very steep upper level lapse rates.  A modest cap is currently keeping a lid on things.  This cap will erode and most likely break over the Mid-Michigan area this afternoon, at which time numerous thunderstorms should develop.  The good news for now is that the wind profile appears to be somewhat weak, but that EHI value is rapidly approaching 1, which suggests at least a marginal tornado risk.

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