Thursday, August 6, 2015

Thunderstorms looking possible Monday, not expected to be severe

Areas of the U.P. have a decent chance of thunderstorms on Saturday as remnants from the previous day come through, however the rest of the state should remain dry.

The GFS suggests potential rain and thunderstorms for eastern/central lower Michigan on Monday afternoon.
As far as lower Michigan is concerned, there is only one adjustment to the otherwise very stable looking forecast that I've seen per the last couple of model runs, and that's the introduction of a fairly decent chance of thunderstorms this coming Monday, August 10th.  These storms should be relatively low on the intensity scale, as there are none of the conditions that would contribute to severe thunderstorm development are being forecast.  Even instability levels are forecast to be very modest and the only reason we'll likely see anything at all is due to high levels of lift due to a low pressure system to our north dipping south, and the associated cold front which will come with it.

Our next shot at stronger storms still doesn't look to be until after the 18th, and even that is questionable.  For now, I plan to enjoy the nice weather and possibly even do some outdoor cooking.

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