Tuesday, August 11, 2015

NAM4KM suggests isolated severe possible in Thumb area on Thursday

Just something to pass along.  Note that one thunderstorm showing up in one area is a long shot at best, but it is a little disconcerting to see:

The latest NAM4KM run is suggesting a potentially intense multicell cluster - or perhaps even a supercell or two - developing in the northern Thumb Area at around 5PM Thursday.
To me, this would be an indication of a lake breeze possibly causing enough convergence to overcome the capping inversion and causing a storm or two to ignite in/around the Thumb area.  Such storms, should they form, could have a very good chance of exceeding severe limits given the conditions, and be capable of large hail, damaging winds, or even a brief tornado given their isolated, discrete nature.  

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