Weak disturbance to target the region on Saturday; thunderstorms likely

The dreary, cloudy weather and the low pressure system that has caused it (along with my sinus headaches) should be moving out of the region tonight.  With it, some sunshine should make itself known tomorrow and rise again Friday morning.  However, the weekend weather doesn't look particularly great. 

The latest NAM model is forecasting that a relatively weak upper level disturbance will amplify a bit before moving into the Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday.   An associated surface low will likely peter out as it moves northeast into our area.  With it will likely come a bit of instability, and widespread rain and thunder throughout the state Saturday, perhaps intensifying a bit during peak heating time.

Widespread stormy weather is predicted by the latest NAM run to be ongoing throughout the day Saturday.  Conditions might clear up a bit in SE Michigan to ignite some stronger storms over the thumb, but I'd not put any money on seeing anything more than a few rumbles of thunder along with perhaps some gusty wind with the rain.

The NAM does suggest some curved wind profiles which favors rotation, but considering what occurred the last couple of times a storm system like this has come from the south, I'd not put much stock in any severe weather this weekend.  Both the 08/19 and 08/23 systems were much stronger, and the conditions looked a lot more favorable, yet we were left with less-than-anticipated yield; to expect more out of this one would be to bet on the tortoise over the Bugatti.  To quote a certain Lord of the Rings character, though, mother nature has been very tricksy for the last few weeks, so I guess anything's possible.  For now the models seem to indicate that ongoing rain and thunder will move into the area Friday night and continue throughout the day Saturday.  This should serve as the punctuation mark to what has been a rather dismal, dreary week.  

Rain may continue Sunday, as the system is currently forecast to stall overhead.  Everything should be out of the way by Monday, though, in preparation for a potential late summer heat wave to take root.  More on that later.