Wednesday, August 5, 2015

After Sunday's storms, quiet, dry spell looks to be settling in

Our weather over the next week and a half should be quite a bit different than it was for the last several weeks - namely, cool, dry and pleasantly stable.  This is due to a blocking pattern forecasted to persist over the west-central U.S., and a greatly weakening jet stream.  Plenty of moisture will be sucked up into the north central U.S., where storms and possibly even severe weather should occur as a result, but there just will not be enough energy to drag these features into the Great Lakes. This leads to quite an astonishing precipitation forecast - potentially less than a half inch of rain over the next ten days, and very little chance of any thunderstorms.  Fire weather may wind up becoming a hazard in some areas of the state - especially the north central region of the lower peninsula.

Cumulative precipitation as forecasted by the GFS model (08/05/15 2am run)
This quiet pattern will likely end by August 16th to 18th, when thunderstorms are forecast to potentially return.  We might wind up receiving more rain in that two day period than we will in the entire time leading up to it! 

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