Last couple GFS runs since this morning are beginning to show a Thursday/Friday setup similar to - if not quite yet as mean looking as - last Sunday's.
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| An upper level jet core of 90-100kts is forecasted to push 18,000ft winds of 50-60kts right toward our mitten from the northwest. |
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| The surface low, currently predicted to strengthen, is predicted to sit in a place eerily similar to the one that helped initiate last week's event. |
The model is predicting a jet core of around 90-100kts with 500mb speeds of 60-70kts just northwest of Michigan. Combine this with low-to-mid level flow of 40-50kts predicted to be over the state, a strengthening upper level disturbance to the north and a deepening surface low predicted to be over the Hudson Bay (that's uncannily similar to last week's) and we may have a recipe for a surprise severe weather event. I say surprise because as of just a few days ago this was completely off the radar and it was looking as though we'd stay dry until after the middle of the month.
Again, I'm not seeing quite the meanness of last week, yet. Long range models were seeing last week's for quite a bit longer, too; I first mentioned end-of-July severe potential around July 22nd. How much instability will be available is still in question. Right now, the GFS is only seeing low 60s dewpoints over Michigan, which is definitely strong enough to drive severe thunderstorms, but won't cause the monstrous amounts of instability we've been seeing with the severe weather events in Michigan this summer, where dewpoints reached 70° and higher. I think that our chances of severe weather are going to hinge entirely on how much moisture there will be in the lower atmosphere. If the low level winds can tap into that warm Gulf stream air, then all bets are off.
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