...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF MICHIGAN...
...MICHIGAN... A BAND OF MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CAPE /ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/. AT THE SAME TIME...SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE MAY REMAIN AS STRONG AS 30-40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF MID/UPPER FLOW...AND AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL LOW...MAY ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS BEFORE THE THREAT DIMINISHES WEDNESDAY EVENING.
Could get ugly. Will detail more when I get back home and have more time to post.
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