Tuesday, August 18, 2015

SPC updates day 2 outlook - Severe weather back on

No sooner had I made the adjustment to that post and the thunderstorm outlook that the SPC punched out an update:


   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS MUCH OF MICHIGAN...

   ...MICHIGAN...
   A BAND OF MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE
   PIVOTING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT
   NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY.  IN ITS WAKE...GUIDANCE IS
   SUGGESTIVE THAT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CAPE
   /ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/.  AT THE SAME TIME...SOUTHERLY
   850 MB FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE MAY REMAIN AS STRONG
   AS 30-40 KT.  THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST WIDELY
   SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS...AS EARLY AS MIDDAY.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF MID/UPPER
   FLOW...AND AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN RESPONSE TO
   ANOTHER IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL LOW...MAY ENHANCE
   STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
    POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS
   BEFORE THE THREAT DIMINISHES WEDNESDAY EVENING.

Could get ugly.  Will detail more when I get back home and have more time to post.

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