Cap should keep lid on storms Thursday, and timing likely to limit severe potential Friday

The chances for severe weather in Michigan this week are dwindling.

While atmospheric conditions will likely favor severe weather in the U.P. on Thursday, the 0-1km temperatures will not.

Conditionally, the U.P. would have a very good shot at severe weather Thursday if not for one thing - a capping inversion is being forecast to develop and actually strengthen throughout the afternoon.  This should hold the lid on thunderstorm development for the most part, though there exists a slight chance of one or two storms going up.

The position of the cold front 9am Friday morning as forecasted by the National Weather Service suggests that it may move through the state during the daytime hours when instability will likely be too low to provide fuel for severe weather.

On Friday, the cold front will sag across northern lower Michigan, which should bring rain and thunderstorms, however conditions don't look nearly as fierce.  I have a feeling the cold front will probably be on its way before peak heating can provide ample fuel for thunderstorm development.

Like I said, it's all about timing.  This forecast could change, but for now I'd say there's only a marginal chance of severe wind or hail.