Friday, August 14, 2015

Storm rapidly re-intensifying, heading for Caseville

Wow, wasn't expecting that.  This one wants to defy me.  Was watching this thing begin to look like it was about to peter out, when suddenly it made a right turn and exploded.


This one is going to be a difficult one to gauge.  Not sure if there's enough wind shear to sustain it for long, but it's a multicell cluster, so you can have new cells blow up to replace any that do dissipate. I'd say hail is now a potential threat, and there's even some indication of at least broad rotation in one or two of the cells; with that southern turn it doesn't surprise me.  A special marine warning was just issued and this one could be severe warned on shortly.  Right now the NWS is estimating gusts at 40kts, which is a bit shy of severe status as far as wind goes, but the vertically integrated liquid and hail potential alone might push it above the threshold.  One way or another, it's a dangerous storm which needs to be taken seriously.

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