The remainder of August looks to be very dry. Is our fall weather pattern taking root?

Now that today's round of thunderstorms is over, the mid-to-long range models are in fair agreement that Michigan will see a very dry, cool, pleasant, early-fall-like week ahead, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s (possibly even the 40s in some areas).  Don't kiss summer goodbye just yet, as we'll probably see 80° again by Friday.  More thunderstorms also appear likely early to mid next week, too, signaling that our summer pattern of stormy weather hasn't quite ended.

The SPC's day 2 and 3 outlook are reminiscent of our typical fall pattern in Michigan.  The jet stream is starting to dip south, leaving us devoid of the dynamics which create thunderstorms.

One thing that I do want to point out though is that the absence of rain this week could be quite telling in regards to what we should expect for the fall and possibly early winter months.  Think about how much rain we've received this summer in Michigan.  It's been quite a bit.  Now, subtract thunderstorm activity from the equation.

It would be near zero.

Very few days of stratiform precipitation have occurred in Michigan this year, let alone this summer. Spring was uncharacteristically dry, and even stoked fears of a possible drought in some circles. Day after day of thunderstorm activity put a literal damper on those fears, but when the stormy summer pattern goes bye-bye and the jet stream starts sinking to the south, we may wind up not seeing much in the way of precipitation at all.  For winter fans like me, this could be heartbreaking.

I'm not going to write off snow just yet.  We're still a long way from winter's doorstep and I plan to enjoy the last weeks of our stormy summer and our fall, first.  Even devoid of snow, the super-strong El Niño giving us a mild winter would be a nice change after two years of hell's 9th Circle enveloping Michigan.