Sunday, August 9, 2015

Storm prediction center issues marginal risk of severe weather for tomorrow

The SPC's day 2 categorical outlook includes a Marginal Risk designation for most of SE lower Michigan.


This is in response to a slightly enhanced low-level wind pattern which could serve to drive a few marginally severe multicell clusters as the cold front is expected to initiate storms near peak heating time.  The NAM4KM suggests this as well.

Composite of the simulated radar from the last two NAM4KM runs.  Both runs suggest potentially strong multicell clusters in SE Michigan tomorrow afternoon.
Truth be told, I'm just not feeling it on this one, though I won't downgrade my own outlook when the SPC assigns a risk area.  Instability should be weak to moderate at best, and the wind profiles don't look that intense.  I could be wrong, but I'm fairly certain the chance of severe storms tomorrow north of the I-69 corridor is very low, and even south of it slim at best.

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