The SPC's day 2 categorical outlook includes a Marginal Risk designation for most of SE lower Michigan.
This is in response to a slightly enhanced low-level wind pattern which could serve to drive a few marginally severe multicell clusters as the cold front is expected to initiate storms near peak heating time. The NAM4KM suggests this as well.
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Composite of the simulated radar from the last two NAM4KM runs. Both runs suggest potentially strong multicell clusters in SE Michigan tomorrow afternoon. |
Truth be told, I'm just not feeling it on this one, though I won't downgrade my own outlook when the SPC assigns a risk area. Instability should be weak to moderate at best, and the wind profiles don't look that intense. I could be wrong, but I'm fairly certain the chance of severe storms tomorrow north of the I-69 corridor is very low, and even south of it slim at best.
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