Storm over bay continues to show signs of weakening, intensifying

There are a couple severe thunderstorm warnings over northeastern lower Michigan as well as north of Grand Rapids near Howard City.

The storm over the Saginaw Bay, however, continues to defy predictability.  A few minutes ago it again showed signs that it was weakening considerably, with much of its vertically integrated liquid dropping off and the storm itself beginning to take on the appearance of dissipation.  However, purples are beginning to show up in the core of the storm again and I'm wondering if it's going to undergo a period of re-intensification once again.

The thunder here in Pigeon is near constant, and mammatus clouds continue to dot the sky.  I have no idea which direction this storm is going to eventually take.  Another severe warned storm remains near Twining and may also affect Huron County (Arenac County was literally just put under the warning for this storm).  The issue this time around is that these storms are moving so slowly that it's tough to say whether or not they're going to last long enough to impact areas other than where they currently sit.  Alcona County remains under a Flash Flood Warning due to this very situation, as idling storms tend to drop a lot of water in one place.

The "frayed" appearance at the "neck" of the storm (between the base and the anvil) tends to indicate weakening, however this one has so far defied death.  It's tough to say how long it will last.