The last couple of NAM model runs are now able to see into Wednesday afternoon. While it is still mostly in agreement with the GFS regarding the upper level disturbance taking on a negative tilt, it doesn't have the surface low deepening anywhere near to the point that the GFS does:
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| Surface low forecast by the NAM's 2AM run for Wednesday afternoon |
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| Surface low forecast by the NAM's 2AM run for Wednesday afternoon |
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| Upper level disturbance forecast by the NAM's 2AM run for Wednesday afternoon |
This is good news if you're looking to avoid a day like November 17th 2013. Without the deepening surface low, you're not going to get that super-strong low level jet which is the key ingredient to large tornado outbreaks.
I'm still somewhat concerned and am not going to exhale too much until a few more model runs come in and show a similar forecast. It is a little strange that the GFS is showing this deepening quite a bit more than the NAM is, and that is still cause for concern. However, as of right now this doesn't look like a high-end event. With dynamics like this, though, that can rapidly change.
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