Still strongly disagree with SPC's outlook, believe widespread severe possible tomorrow

The SPC has released their day 2 outlook for tomorrow, and it includes a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over most of south/central lower Michigan.  I also believe it vastly underestimates the severe weather potential tomorrow.  Save for some slight adjustments, I'm still thinking that widespread severe weather is possible tomorrow.

This is the latest NAM4KM model run's simulated radar for around 11PM tomorrow night.  It predicts a line of supercell thunderstorms extending from northeast to southwest across central lower Michigan.  This model has been spot on over the past several months in predicting thunderstorm development in our state.  The conditions it suggests will exist are going to favor severe weather, even into the evening hours, leading me to believe we're looking at a similar situation to the June 22nd tornado event.

With that in mind, this doesn't quite make the hair on the back of my neck stand up in the way that the model runs leading up to that day did.

First of all, the models aren't quite as aggressive as they were for that day as far as favorable conditions go, and they've also tempered their forecast a tad over the past few runs.  I also think that the models slightly overestimated the conditions that were being forecast for June 22nd.  That could be what's happening now, too, so we could see a similar adjustment downward in actual conditions.  With that in mind, we still had some serious tornado touchdowns and some very severe storms throughout the area on June 22nd.  I honestly don't think we're going to have the same level of instability on hand that we did back then, and the wind field doesn't look quite as nasty, but I still think conditions will be primed and that a similar setup may occur.  Basically, if you were to ask me to rate, on a scale of 1 to 10, the June 22nd event, tomorrow's setup and, say, an outbreak on the level of November 17th 2013, November 17th would be a 10, June 22nd would be a 6 and tomorrow looks like a possible 4. 

SPC's latest day 2 outlook

I could wind up being very wrong, and eating humble pie.  Like June 22nd was, this is going to be a very tough one to call.  Early day thunderstorms can have a huge impact on what happens in the evening.  However, I'm going on recent history as a template that tells me not to discount the strong possibility of an event similar to June 22nd.  In my opinion, the SPC gets our state "wrong" more than it does others.  Conditions here vary quite a bit more than they do in the plains due to the large bodies of water that surround us.  I just refuse to argue with a model that has been so accurate over the past six months.