SPC releases updated day 1 outlook that includes marginal risk for northeastern lower MI

Text of the outlook:

   EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS RATHER
   LOW...LARGELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION... VERTICAL
   SHEAR...OR SOME COMBINATION THEREOF.  ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG A
   FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
   NORTHERN MISSOURI...WHERE IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION
   THAT INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD CONSOLIDATE AND BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

Some of the models (specifically the HRRR) do indicate the potential for semi-discrete cells to pop up this afternoon and evening.  There are a few cells currently on radar and a few significant weather advisories issued for the southwestern quadrant of the state regarding >40mph gusts.  The thumb area looks to have the most instability in the state right now, but it should be removed from any impulses (provided nothing moves in from the north) and this instability should wane by the time any storms reach the area.

For now, I'd say the risk of severe weather in the state today remains very low.