Models back off from tornado risk, some severe storm risk still present

Quite a difference in the model predictions this morning.  Very little tornado risk appears to remain across Michigan, so it looks as though we're going to be spared a potentially high-end event.

From the SPC:

   ...LOWER AND UPPER MI TODAY...
   PRIOR CONVECTION AND UNFAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES HAVE REDUCED MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES TO THE NE OF THE SRN PLAINS.  STILL...SOME CLOUD BREAKS
   ARE PROBABLE ACROSS LOWER MI BY AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS
   WRN UPPER MI BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT.  RICHER MOISTURE
   /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/ AND AFTERNOON SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES AOA 80F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE
   1000-1500 J PER KG...WITH NAM SOUNDINGS LIKELY TOO UNSTABLE AS A
   RESULT OF THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME/.  WIND PROFILES WILL NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER LOWER MI...BUT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/LINE
   SEGMENTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW DAMAGING
   GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER
   OVER UPPER MI IN PROXIMITY TO THE MIDLEVEL JET...WHERE PROFILES WILL
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS.  STILL...THE DEGREE OF
   DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR NW AND THE WINDOW OF
   OPPORTUNITY IS NARROW...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW DAMAGING WIND
   PROBABILITIES. 

A slight risk remains for severe wind this afternoon, but for the most part, today's severe weather risk has gone way down once again.