The model I trust the most in predicting severe weather is beginning to indicate that a high end event is likely to occur this Sunday evening across central/possibly even northern lower Michigan.
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| Supercell composite is beginning to go purple. |
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| 0-1km EHI measures both instability and "spin" that the wind has in the first 1000 meters above ground. No other factor is more important in the development of significant tornadoes - if this index is high, watch out. |
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| Simulated radar is beginning to look very, very scary. This is going to be a very active weekend. |
This is still early, as we're just on the horizon of the model being able to see the day, but what I'm seeing does not look good. Initial supercells would likely congeal into a squall line which would plow south east, leading to a potentially high-end damaging wind event across those areas and a potentially tornadic event where storms initially form.
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