Tuesday, July 14, 2015

A very hot, humid weekend ahead

Don't let the current cold front and cool north wind fool you.  Both the GFS and NAM models are indicating that this weekend is going to have some of the warmest, most humid air we've seen in this state in years.



Multiple 90° days are a real possibility for the first time in many a summer, and dewpoints in the upper 70s are going to make it feel much hotter.  Unfortunately, multiple rounds of potentially strong to severe thunderstorms may cut the amount of time one can spend at the beach short.
Of most significance as far as I'm concerned is that the usually moisture-conservative GFS is predicting 80 degree dewpoints in some areas of the Great Lakes by Sunday night, with other areas forecast for over 75° dewpoints.  That's *insanely warm tropical air*, and severe weather is going to be likely - instability is again forecast to be just shy of mind-boggling (4000-5000j/kg SBCAPE). We're also likely to be under the gun for it this time around, as the jet stream doesn't appear to be swinging the storms south like it did yesterday, but northeastward instead.

More about the severe threat as it develops.  For now, I defer to Mr. Torregrossa for more about the temperatures.

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