Models are starting to show some run-to-run consistency regarding the advancement of a storm system which should affect the lower Great Lakes next weekend, which could bring some potentially strong to severe thunderstorms to eastern Michigan.
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| My current expectation of severe weather potential based on the model data. |
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| Latest GFS run's SCP index predictor. Other runs are a bit less formidable looking, so only introducing isolated risk at the moment. |
These storms look to target the state between Friday and Monday, but it's too soon to tell exactly when they'll strike, or what kind of storm mode we'll be seeing. For now, shear is looking to be unidirectional, meaning damaging winds would be the most likely hazard. The latest ECMWF run appears to be a bit faster in timing, so this could evolve to include Thursday, but since that model is only just now getting close to being able to view the time frame, and because the GFS has shown fairly good consistency, I'd still expect any storms to occur between Friday and Monday.
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